Overview
The ability to forecast and analyse trends effectively can improve performance and service delivery through better decision making. Analysing and interpreting statistical information is the basis for successful public services.
This Understanding Forecasting and Trends course will give attendees the confidence to make more effective decisions, based on data reports. Delegates will learn how to; confidently identify and predict trends, meaningfully interpret data and gain the skills to be able to apply the right forecasting technique for your needs.
Take part in this highly interactive and practical workshop using Excel spreadsheets, practical examples, interactive learning tasks, and theory.
Branko spent most of his career working for Emerson, a global and one of the largest process control equipment manufacturing corporations. His last position was VP Educational Services. In the past, he also lectured at the University of Gloucestershire in several subjects, including quantitative methods and applications of Excel.
He published a series of books in statistics with a variety of publishers, such as McGraw Hill, Oxford University Press and Amazon. Almost all of these books are based around applying a variety of sophisticated methods using the simplest Excel syntax. He has been using Excel for over ...
Learning Outcomes
- Understand how you can forecast trends
- Learn how forecasting and trends can improve the performance of your organisation
- Confidently interpret data in the most meaningful way
- Learn how to effectively forecast to help make more effective business decisions
- Examine trends that may impact your organisation
Agenda
Registration
Trainer’s Welcome and Clarification of Learning Objectives
- The purpose and challenges of forecasting
- Mitigate the uncertainties that the future brings
- Relationship with planning and decision making
Workshop 1: Understanding the language of Forecasting and Trends
- Different average values
- How to make estimates
- Randomness
- Stationarity
- Linearity
- Periodicity and Seasonality
- Forecasting horizon
- Accuracy and Precision
- Forecasting errors and error metrics
- Prediction interval
Morning Break
Workshop 2: How to choose the Right Forecasting Technique
- The purpose and objectives
- Identify patterns in data
- Understand the rules of forecasting
- How do you know that you’ve made the right choice
Workshop 3: Correlation and Regression
- Graphs and charting variables
- Establish correlation between variables
- Correlation matrix and variable lagging
- Conduct regression analysis
- Simple prediction interval
Lunch
Reflection Session
- Trainer will review the day’s learning and the next stages of the course
- Delegates will have time to ask questions and share views with one another
Workshop 4: Simple Trending
- Use Excel to generate trends
- Extrapolate trends
- Measure the quality of your trends (accuracy and precision)
- What to do with short-term forecasts?
Afternoon Break
Handling Seasonality
- Introduction to exponential smoothing
- Use Solver to optimise forecasts
- Understand and apply the embedded Excel ETS method
Feedback, Evaluation & Close
Testimonials
