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The ability to forecast and analyse trends effectively can improve performance and service delivery through better decision making. Analysing and interpreting statistical information is the basis for successful public services.

This Understanding Forecasting and Trends course will give attendees the confidence to make more effective decisions, based on data reports. Delegates will learn how to; confidently identify and predict trends, meaningfully interpret data and gain the skills to be able to apply the right forecasting technique for your needs.

Take part in this highly interactive and practical workshop using Excel spreadsheets, practical examples, interactive learning tasks, and theory.

trainer photo
Branko Pecar
Statistics Consultant

Branko spent most of his career working for Emerson, a global and one of the largest process control equipment manufacturing corporations. His last position was VP Educational Services. In the past, he also lectured at the University of Gloucestershire in several subjects, including quantitative methods and applications of Excel.

He published a series of books in statistics with a variety of publishers, such as McGraw Hill, Oxford University Press and Amazon. Almost all of these books are based around applying a variety of sophisticated methods using the simplest Excel syntax. He has been using Excel for over ...

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Learning Outcomes

  • Understand how you can forecast trends
  • Learn how forecasting and trends can improve the performance of your organisation
  • Confidently interpret data in the most meaningful way
  • Learn how to effectively forecast to help make more effective business decisions
  • Examine trends that may impact your organisation
All the Understanding ModernGov courses are Continuing Professional Development (CPD) certified, with signed certificates available upon request for event.

Enquire About In-House Training

To speak to someone about a bespoke training programme, please contact us:
0800 542 9414
[email protected]


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09:15 - 09:30


09:30 - 09:45

Trainer’s Welcome and Clarification of Learning Objectives

  • The purpose and challenges of forecasting
  • Mitigate the uncertainties that the future brings
  • Relationship with planning and decision making
09:45 - 10:45

Workshop 1: Understanding the language of Forecasting and Trends

  • Different average values
  • How to make estimates
  • Randomness
  • Stationarity
  • Linearity
  • Periodicity and Seasonality
  • Forecasting horizon
  • Accuracy and Precision
  • Forecasting errors and error metrics
  • Prediction interval
10:45 - 11:00

Morning Break

11:00 - 11:30

Workshop 2: How to choose the Right Forecasting Technique

  • The purpose and objectives
  • Identify patterns in data
  • Understand the rules of forecasting
  • How do you know that you’ve made the right choice
11:30 - 13:00

Workshop 3: Correlation and Regression

  • Graphs and charting variables
  • Establish correlation between variables
  • Correlation matrix and variable lagging
  • Conduct regression analysis
  • Simple prediction interval
13:00 - 13:45


13:45 - 14:00

Reflection Session

  • Trainer will review the day’s learning and the next stages of the course
  • Delegates will have time to ask questions and share views with one another
14:00 - 14:45

Workshop 4: Simple Trending

  • Use Excel to generate trends
  • Extrapolate trends
  • Measure the quality of your trends (accuracy and precision)
  • What to do with short-term forecasts?
14:45 - 15:00

Afternoon Break

15:00 - 16:00

Handling Seasonality

  • Introduction to exponential smoothing
  • Use Solver to optimise forecasts
  • Understand and apply the embedded Excel ETS method
16:00 - 16:15

Feedback, Evaluation & Close


"An excellent and informative course delivered by knowledgeable presenters. I recommend it!"
A Guide to Successful Information and Records Management Agency Records Officer, Vehicle Certification Agency
"This course provides a good combination of general theory and very practical, experience based advice; really adding value to your day to day activities if you work with records management.”
A Guide to Successful Information and Records Management GDPR Protect Manager, DataAI
“A good introduction to an area I was completely unfamiliar with. Gives a lot to think about going forward.”
Developing Agile TeamsAssistant Economist, Food Standards Agency
"The trainer was an excellent instructor who provided insight from their own experience and applied to fun and engaging practical sessions that i can apply to my own teams."
Developing Agile Teams Operations Manager, University of Portsmouth
"A really informative, interactive and beneficial course for anyone who doesn't know much about agile."
Developing Agile Teams Programme Management Support Officer, Avon Fire and Rescue Service